The grim outlook was presented by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank at their just-concluded 2025 Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., USA. The institutions downgraded Nigeria's economic growth forecast, suggesting that current economic policy reforms are largely failing to foster inclusive growth and predicting a rise in the national poverty rate by 2027.
Speaking to Financial Vanguard following the meetings, economy observers and CSOs expressed their deep concern and embarrassment over Nigeria's unfavorable rating. While highlighting the critical challenges, they also offered a range of recommendations aimed at rescuing the economy from the perilous trajectory outlined by the global financial institutions.
NACCIMA Proposes Short-Term Relief, ActionAid Unsurprised by Bleak Outlook
The President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Dele Oye, proposed immediate, targeted interventions to shield vulnerable populations and make tangible progress in poverty reduction. These include well-structured stimulus packages with cash transfers, food assistance, and direct support for SMEs, coupled with rigorous monitoring to prevent corruption. He also emphasized the need for agricultural investment, microfinance expansion, youth-focused capital, skills training, infrastructure development in rural areas, tax incentives, public-private partnerships, and expanded social safety nets. Crucially, Oye stressed the need for the government to prioritize peace and security, especially in agricultural regions, and to shift focus from raw material exports to value-added local manufacturing.
Meanwhile, ActionAid Nigeria (AAN) stated that it was "deeply concerned, yet unsurprised" by the World Bank's dire projections. The Country Director, Andrew Mamedu, pointed to Nigeria's persistent governance challenges as the primary obstacle. He highlighted the country's weak performance on governance indicators, the failure of public institutions to manage resources and deliver basic services, and a widening trust deficit between citizens and the government. Mamedu criticized the prioritization of luxury spending by government officials amidst deepening poverty and accused President Tinubu's administration of sidestepping meaningful structural reforms with superficial social protection rhetoric. He warned that the current path would fuel migration, brain drain, instability, and disillusionment, potentially making Nigeria the "global capital of extreme poverty." Mamedu also highlighted the contradiction of soaring profits in the banking sector alongside increasing poverty, emphasizing the lack of inclusive growth.
"Sobering Picture" - Deji Adeyanju Highlights Deep-Rooted Poverty Crisis
Human rights lawyer and activist, Deji Adeyanju, echoed the grim assessment, describing the World Bank's report as painting a "sobering picture" for Nigeria. He emphasized the deep and multifaceted nature of Nigeria's poverty crisis, characterized by income poverty, multidimensional deprivation, and stark inequality. Adeyanju cited alarming statistics, including the fact that Nigeria hosted 15% of the world's extremely poor population in 2024, with over 106 million Nigerians living below the $2.15 per day threshold. He further highlighted the impact of inflation, the naira's depreciation, insecurity disrupting agriculture, and weak job creation as key drivers of this crisis. Adeyanju called for transformative, inclusive, and sustainable reforms, including economic diversification, improved governance and public spending transparency, investment in security and human capital, support for SMEs, and measures to stabilize the economy and alleviate the cost of living.
CISLAC Laments "Reckless Spending" and Lack of Productivity
The Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative and Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), Awual Rafsanjani, stated that the World Bank's report was "not surprising" given the prevailing signs of economic mismanagement. He criticized the government's "reckless spending, looting, excessive borrowing for just personal consumption or diversion, and lack of productivity." Rafsanjani lamented the failure of state governors to harness local resources and their focus on unproductive projects. He warned that unless this mindset changes, poverty and inequality would continue to worsen. He stressed the need to support small-scale businesses, improve the ease of doing business, and address insecurity to allow farmers to return to their land and boost food production.
Recommendations for Avoiding Poverty Crisis: A Multi-Pronged Approach
Various stakeholders offered a range of recommendations to steer Nigeria away from the predicted poverty crisis:
- NACCIMA: Targeted stimulus packages, agricultural investment, microfinance expansion, youth capital development, skills training, rural infrastructure improvement, tax incentives, public-private partnerships, expanded social safety nets, and prioritizing peace and security.
- ActionAid Nigeria: Strengthening and expanding social protection (including universal cash transfers and food support), protecting smallholder farmers, scrapping non-essential public spending, and stabilizing the economy with people-centered fiscal and monetary policies.
- Deji Adeyanju: Diversifying the economy, improving public spending transparency, investing in security and conflict prevention, increasing funding for education and healthcare, supporting SMEs, and maintaining tight monetary policies with essential goods subsidies.
- CISLAC: Deliberate trade and investment policies to engage Nigerians in business, supporting small-scale businesses, improving the ease of doing business, and addressing insecurity to boost agriculture.
- Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE): Addressing the rising cost of living, taming inflation through macroeconomic policies, enhancing productivity through infrastructure investment and social sector spending, prudent resource management at all government levels, population growth sensitization, tackling insecurity, and combating corruption.
- Global Rights Nigeria: Strengthening social protection programs, supporting SMEs and improving access to finance, enhancing agricultural productivity by addressing insecurity and transportation challenges, ensuring policy predictability, and investing in infrastructure, particularly the power sector.
The overwhelming consensus among these groups is that the World Bank's forecast serves as a critical wake-up call. They urge the Nigerian government to move beyond rhetoric and implement concrete, impactful, and transparent measures to address the deep-rooted drivers of poverty and ensure a more inclusive and sustainable economic future for all Nigerians. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the government will heed these warnings and take the bold steps necessary to avert the predicted poverty crisis.