Nigerian consumers may soon experience further relief at the pump as a combination of falling global crude oil prices and the reinstatement of the Naira-for-Crude arrangement for local refiners is projected to potentially push the price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) down to around N800 per litre. 

This optimistic outlook from oil marketers and industry analysts follows a series of price reductions by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has further slashed its ex-depot price for petrol to N835 per litre, marking its second downward adjustment in less than a week.

The recent price adjustments by the Dangote refinery signal a significant shift in the downstream petroleum sector. The latest reduction to N835 per litre, announced on Wednesday, represents a N30 decrease from the N865 per litre price implemented just six days prior, and a substantial N45 drop from the initial N880 per litre when the refinery first began sales last week. This marks the third price cut from the facility in the past six weeks, a development confirmed through a pro forma invoice and checks on petroleumprice.ng.

In a statement confirming the latest price cut, Anthony Chiejina, the Group’s Chief Branding and Communications Officer at Dangote, emphasized the refinery's commitment to providing affordable, high-quality petrol to Nigerian consumers. 

He clarified that the new gantry price of N835 per litre includes all statutory levies imposed by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). Notably, coastal sales remain on hold, while the gantry price for diesel is set at $608 plus a $70 surcharge, payable in either Naira or USD. Jet fuel will be sold at $664.75 with additional gantry and coastal surcharges.

The statement also revealed the expected retail prices at which major marketing partners, including MRS, AP (Ardova), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde, and Tecno Oil, will sell petrol. In Lagos, the pump price is expected to be around N890 per litre, down from N920. Prices in other regions will similarly see reductions, with the South-West at N900, the North-West and North-Central at N910, and the South-East, South-South, and North-East at N920 per litre.

Dangote's spokesperson, Chiejina, expressed optimism about the wider economic impact of these price reductions, anticipating a positive ripple effect across various sectors, providing much-needed relief to consumers, especially during the Easter season, and contributing to broader economic growth. 

He reiterated the refinery's dedication to ensuring a consistent supply of high-quality petroleum products to meet domestic demand, with surplus reserves for potential export, aiming to stabilize the local market and bolster Nigeria's foreign exchange reserves. The refinery also urged other industry players to source their products from Dangote to ensure these price reductions benefit consumers nationwide.

The potential for even lower petrol prices, possibly reaching N800 per litre, hinges on several factors, according to industry analysts and oil marketers. A further drop in global crude oil prices to around $50 per barrel is considered a key prerequisite. On Wednesday, Brent crude, the global benchmark, was trading at approximately $65 per barrel. Additionally, a decreased reliance on foreign exchange for purchasing products would significantly impact the final pump price.

Adding to the downward pressure on prices is the recent drop in the landing cost of imported petrol, which reportedly fell to N853 per litre on Tuesday. This development coincided with regulatory approval granted to marketers to import a substantial 117,000 metric tonnes (equivalent to about 157 million litres) of petrol between April 8th and 16th, 2025, aimed at bolstering the nation's fuel supply. Data from the Nigerian Ports Authority and the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria confirmed these import figures.

Crucially, these price drops align with the resumption and full implementation of the Naira-for-Crude agreement with local refiners, including Dangote, after a temporary suspension. The Ministry of Finance confirmed this development, stating that the policy is a long-term strategy to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on foreign exchange for petroleum products and to support sustainable local refining and energy security.

Despite these promising developments at the ex-depot level, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, noted that the reduced prices are a direct consequence of the Naira-for-Crude deal and the global crude price fluctuations. 

He expressed optimism that if these trends continue, domestic petrol prices will further decrease, potentially reaching between N650 and N700 per litre if crude oil hits $50 per barrel. However, he also acknowledged the immediate challenge of potential losses for marketers holding older, more expensive stock.

Echoing this sentiment, oil and gas expert Olatide Jeremiah suggested that the pump price of petrol could have already reached N700 per litre if the Naira-for-Crude policy hadn't been temporarily suspended. He believes the current price reductions from Dangote are triggering a competitive response from private depot owners, which should ultimately benefit consumers through continued price drops.

However, not all stakeholders share the same level of optimism. Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, expressed concerns about the instability caused by the frequent and arbitrary price changes within the sector.

In conclusion, the Nigerian downstream petroleum sector is currently experiencing a period of dynamic change. The combination of falling global crude oil prices, the resumption of the Naira-for-Crude agreement, and the aggressive pricing strategy of the Dangote refinery are creating downward pressure on petrol prices. 

While consumers can look forward to potential further reductions at the pump, the rapid fluctuations are also posing challenges for marketers and highlighting the need for a stable and predictable pricing environment within the industry.