Recent data indicates a notable decrease in the landing cost of imported Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), which fell to N853 per litre on Tuesday, intensifying the current price competition in Nigeria's downstream oil industry.
This change aligns with major marketers receiving regulatory clearance to import a significant quantity of 117,000 metric tonnes of petrol—approximately 156.897 million litres—over an eight-day timeframe, from April 8th to 16th, 2025. This surge in imported fuel is intended to enhance the overall supply across the country.
The figures detailing the landing cost and import volumes were obtained from separate documents provided by the Nigerian Port Authority (NPA) and the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN).
The past week witnessed a period of relief for Nigerians as the Dangote Refinery resumed the sale of its refined petroleum products in Naira and significantly reduced its loading cost to N865 per litre. This positive development followed an earlier suspension of sales that had pushed pump prices close to the N1,000 mark.
However, the latest data suggests a potential for even lower prices at the pump. The Competency Centre's daily energy data indicated that the on-spot estimated import parity into tanks had fallen to N853 per litre. This new landing cost is N12 lower than the current loading price offered by the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery in Lagos.
According to industry dealers, the N853 per litre import parity, which accounts for various expenses such as shipping, import duties, and exchange rates, represents a notable decrease. It is N3 lower than the N856.75 per litre landing cost recorded last week Monday and a slight increase from the N852.02 per litre observed on the preceding Tuesday.
The obtained document further detailed that on-the-spot sales at the NPSC-NOJ terminal had dropped to N853.12 per litre, while the average landing cost for the past 30 days had also declined to N844.84 per litre.
The pricing analysis also benchmarked the price of Brent crude at $64.76 per barrel, an increase from the $62.82 per barrel quoted on the previous Tuesday, with an applied exchange rate of N1,603.78 per dollar. This calculation was based on import volumes of 38,000 metric tonnes by the marketers.
The document further revealed Dangote Refinery's pricing structure, stating its Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) coastal price at $682.75 per metric tonne and its gantry price at N926.58 per litre. The refinery's Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) coastal price was listed at $603.50 per metric tonne.
An excerpt from the document shed light on recent global oil market dynamics: "International petroleum product prices declined after President Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese goods, triggering concerns about the global economy and weaker fuel demand. Despite initial fears of supply disruption, the market reacted harshly due to oversupply and slowing industrial activity."
It further noted a subsequent slight recovery: "However, prices began to recover slightly when President Trump later paused some of the tariffs, easing trade tensions and boosting market sentiment. Overall, this highlights how demand-side concerns are increasingly outweighing supply risks in shaping oil market dynamics."
The document also addressed the domestic market: "Dangote Refinery reduced its petrol ex-depot price to N865 per litre during the week, intensifying competition in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector. The foreign exchange rate continues to exhibit significant volatility, with the Naira experiencing renewed depreciation, thereby further delaying imports."
However, it also pointed out the dynamic nature of landing costs: "Nevertheless, as landing costs are directly tied to these variables, they are expected to fluctuate several times intra-day. Cost savings can be achieved through optimising supply chain management by securing long-term contracts at favourable rates and leveraging economies of scale to streamline inland distribution networks."
Meanwhile, an analysis of the NPA's import manifest detailed the arrival of six vessels carrying the approved petrol volumes at the Tincan port in Lagos and the Calabar port in Cross River State.
The first vessel, allocated to the Peak Shipping Agency and carrying 21,000 metric tonnes of PMS, berthed at the KLT Phase 3A terminal at midnight on Tuesday, April 8th, 2025.
This was followed by the arrival of the SL Aremu vessel, carrying 20,000 metric tonnes, at the same terminal on Wednesday, April 10th, also at midnight. Tiger Shipping acted as the maritime agent for this vessel.
In Calabar port, the Fatima Sarah ship, handled by Dozzy Oil and Gas, discharged 15,000 metric tonnes of imported petrol on Saturday, April 12th, at 9:25 pm.
On Monday, April 14th, at 3:20 pm, another vessel carrying 20,000 metric tonnes of fuel berthed at the Tincan port, with Peejay Shipping as its agent.
Additionally, two more vessels, carrying a combined total of 41,000 metric tonnes of fuel, are scheduled to arrive at the KLT Phase 2 terminal at midnight on Tuesday and Wednesday, April 15th and 16th, respectively.
Collectively, these six vessels account for the importation of 117,000 metric tonnes of petrol. Converting this volume at a rate of 1,341 litres per metric tonne indicates that marketers are bringing in approximately 156.897 million litres of petrol, averaging around 19 million litres per vessel. This increased supply, coupled with the lower landing cost, is expected to further intensify the price war and potentially lead to lower pump prices for consumers in the coming days.