A Reuters poll of analysts had forecast a trade surplus of $2.64 billion for March. The actual surplus, according to LSEG data, represents the widest gap since November 2024.
While exports from the resource-rich nation have shown a recovery from lows following the end of the 2022 commodity boom, concerns remain about the potential impact of a weakening global growth outlook, largely attributed to the trade war initiated by U.S. tariffs.
Indonesia was among the countries targeted by U.S. President Donald Trump with tariffs exceeding 10 percent, facing a 32 percent levy. However, this tariff has been temporarily paused for 90 days, offering a window for negotiation.
In an effort to avoid these tariffs, several Indonesian ministers have been in Washington since last week, seeking to negotiate a deal. Their proposal includes a commitment to purchase more American products to reduce the existing trade imbalance with the U.S.
Official data released on Monday revealed that exports saw a year-on-year increase of 3.16 percent in March, reaching $23.25 billion. This figure contrasts with the 3.40 percent fall predicted by economists in the Reuters poll.
Leading the export surge were palm oil shipments, which jumped by nearly 41 percent last month compared to March 2024, reaching $2.19 billion. Nickel metals exports also saw a significant rise of 12 percent to $2.38 billion. These strong performances helped to offset a decline in coal exports during the same period.
Total imports for March were valued at $18.92 billion, according to the statistics bureau, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.34 percent. This was slightly below the poll's forecast of a 6.6 percent rise.
Hosianna Situmorang, an economist with Bank Danamon, described March's surplus as "solid," attributing it to increased exports destined for the U.S.
"Exporters accelerated shipments ahead of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, causing heavy port congestion at Tanjung Priok, while freight bookings at Chinese ports plunged by 640–800K containers, signaling early spillover from trade tensions," she noted, referring to Jakarta's main port.
The data also highlighted significant growth in exports of electronics, footwear, and knitted apparel to the U.S., each exceeding a 15 percent year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2025. These three categories represent Indonesia's largest export products to the U.S.
The trade surplus with the U.S. emerged as the primary contributor to Indonesia's overall surplus in the January-March 2025 period, reaching $4.32 billion, up from $3.61 billion in the same period in 2024. Indonesia's total trade surplus for the first quarter of the year amounted to $10.92 billion.