Nearly two decades ago, African oil made up nearly a third of China’s oil imports. Today, that figure has dropped to around 10%, as China has turned to the Middle East and Russia for a larger share of its oil needs. However, Africa is now becoming a key focus for Chinese investments in LNG, driven by China’s growing demand for natural gas and its desire to lessen dependence on Australian imports.
Mozambique has emerged as a global hotspot for natural gas production following the discovery of over 5 trillion cubic meters (176 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas reserves in the Rovuma Basin, located off the country’s northeastern coast. The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) holds a 20% stake in the $30 billion Rovuma LNG project, which plans to build an offshore facility capable of producing 18 million tonnes of LNG annually. Despite financial delays and security challenges posed by insurgent activity, ExxonMobil, the project’s main partner, has confirmed that the initiative remains on track to reach its final investment decision next year.
CNPC is also involved in Mozambique’s Coral Floating Liquefied Natural Gas project, which shipped its first LNG cargo in 2022. These projects highlight China’s growing interest in African LNG as part of its broader energy diversification strategy.
Kai Xue, a Beijing-based corporate lawyer specializing in foreign direct investment and cross-border financing, noted that the Rovuma LNG project could signal the start of Chinese oil companies expanding into gas investments across Africa. This move aligns with China’s efforts to reduce its reliance on Australian imports amid ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions. “This is part of a wider strategy,” Kai explained, pointing to similar investments in a major iron ore mine in Guinea and a railway in Mongolia for coking coal exports. “All of these efforts aim to reduce China’s dependence on Australian commodities.”
Australia remains China’s largest LNG supplier, accounting for about a third of its imports. However, China also sources LNG from Qatar, Russia, Malaysia, and the United States. In recent years, African nations such as Nigeria, Mozambique, Algeria, and Egypt have also become increasingly important suppliers of LNG to China.
In Congo-Brazzaville, Chinese operator Wing Wah is developing the $2 billion onshore Banga Kayo block, which aims to capture previously flared gas for domestic use. The project’s first phase targets a production capacity of one million cubic meters per day. Meanwhile, in Algeria, Sinopec and the China National Nuclear Corporation have completed the dome lifting operation for a 150,000 cubic meter LNG storage tank as part of a new project led by state-owned oil company Sonatrach.
David Shinn, an expert on China-Africa relations and a professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, noted that while China's oil imports from Africa have been consistently decreasing, the situation with liquefied natural gas (LNG) is quite different.
"China is increasingly viewing Africa as a vital source for LNG and is enhancing its investments in this area," he remarked.
However, Beijing's heightened focus on Africa's gas sector does not signify a complete withdrawal from investments in the continent's oil industry.
For instance, the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is actively developing significant oilfields throughout Africa, including Nigeria's ultra-deep Egina field and the newly operational Akpo West field.
Additionally, United Energy Group is poised to nearly double its production in Egypt following its acquisition of the Western Desert portfolio from US-based Apex International Energy, which will add over 22,000 barrels per day across five concessions. CNOOC is also progressing with Uganda's Lake Albert project and is expected to commence oil production from the Kingfisher field this year.
Luke Patey, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, emphasized that China is solidifying its investments in Africa's oil-rich nations. "Geopolitical factors are significant," Patey stated.
He pointed out that the appeal of discounted Russian crude oil has further diminished the competitiveness of African sellers, compounded by broader economic trends.
"The efficient producers in the Gulf states are likely to be the last ones remaining as China moves towards a greener energy transition. Africa may need to turn to India as a major new consumer of oil," Patey added.
Xue also highlighted that the transition to renewable energy will influence China's oil import patterns in the coming decades.
"I anticipate that China will increasingly depend less on maritime oil imports overall due to the rise of electric vehicles and trucks," he explained.
This shift would lead to a decrease in demand for petrol and diesel, he noted, suggesting that strategic investments could focus on developing more oil pipelines from Russia and Central Asia to circumvent the Malacca Strait bottleneck.
CNPC forecasts indicate that China's oil demand may decline by nearly 70 percent by 2060, which would have a considerable effect on African oil exports to China in the coming decades.
Xue emphasized that the shift in investment trends will be gradual. "There will be a consistent transition away from seaborne oil and a long-term decrease in oil demand in China, but these changes will not instantly alter existing African investments," he stated. "Current projects still address the immediate need for securing oil and gas resources."
Shinn from George Washington University suggested that the recent investments in African oilfields might indicate a new hedging strategy by China, but they could also simply reflect Chinese oil companies' efforts to generate profits in Africa.
"Oil imports from Africa, primarily from Angola, appear to have stabilized at around 10 percent. This still positions Africa as a vital source," Shinn noted.
Padraig Carmody, a China-Africa expert and professor at Trinity College Dublin, remarked that the recent investments in oil and gas are likely a reaction to global geopolitical changes.
Carmody explained that following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China significantly increased its imports of Russian oil and gas. This led to some smaller Chinese banks becoming involved in financing this trade, which is now facing secondary sanctions from the US and Europe—an issue that is concerning larger Chinese banks.
He also highlighted that after former US President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on Chinese products, Beijing retaliated with tariffs on American imports, including oil. This has made US oil more expensive, prompting new supply agreements to be established in Africa.
"Following the commodity price collapse of 2014, achieving energy security became easier without needing to 'lock up barrels at source.' However, with rising instability, direct supply agreements with China help mitigate risk," Carmody concluded.