The initial Champions League matches scheduled for January feature a particularly significant encounter that could have far-reaching implications in this unpredictable debut season of the 36-team format.
On Wednesday, Paris Saint-Germain will face Manchester City in a matchup between two immensely wealthy, state-supported clubs that currently find themselves in an astonishingly low 25th and 22nd positions in the standings.
Should the 2020 runner-up and 2023 champion end their game at Parc des Princes in a draw, both teams could enter the final 18-game round starting January 29 outside the top 24 spots necessary for advancing to the knockout stage.
The newly introduced format, which has replaced the traditional group stage with eight matches against different opponents, including two in January, presents a challenge even for UEFA. Their preseason forecast suggested that accumulating eight points would likely secure advancement, a prediction that now appears overly optimistic.
The first six rounds have already defied expectations. Manchester City and PSG have faced difficulties, Real Madrid has suffered losses in half of its matches, placing them 20th despite the addition of Kylian Mbappé to their championship-winning squad. Meanwhile, the lowest-ranked newcomer, Brest, has surprisingly achieved four victories, positioning themselves seventh in the standings, just ahead of Lille.
“It would have been impossible to list these eight clubs as being in the top eight positions,” Giorgio Marchetti, the UEFA deputy general secretary, told The Associated Press in a recent interview. “There is a lot of new fresh air.”
“I think the format has an impact,” Marchetti said, pointing to comments by Inter Milan coach Simone Inzaghi that it is more difficult to prepare for eight different opponents instead of three. “It is more of a challenge.”
What positions are teams competing for?
The top eight teams in the standings as of January 29 will secure direct advancement to the round of 16, commencing in March. This group is expected to include the current leader, Liverpool, and second-placed Barcelona, both of which have already guaranteed their spots in the top 24. Notably, Liverpool is the only team to have won all six of its matches.
Teams ranked from ninth to 24th will enter a new knockout playoff round. Teams ranked 9th to 16th will be seeded in the draw on January 31 and will play the second leg at home, while those finishing 17th to 24th will host the first legs.
Positions 25 to 36 in the standings will be eliminated and will not qualify for the Europa League. Already eliminated are Leipzig, Slovan Bratislava, and Young Boys, each of which lost all six of their matches.
Tuesday's Matches
Liverpool will host Lille, while Barcelona faces 15th-placed Benfica. Atletico Madrid, currently in 11th place, has the opportunity to surpass Bayer Leverkusen, which is in fourth place with just a one-point lead.
Aston Villa, the 1982 European Cup champion, can secure a spot in the round of 16 with a victory against 16th-placed Monaco.
Stuttgart, sitting in 26th place, is favored to win against Slovan, which would elevate them to 10 points and apply pressure on PSG and Man City.
Wednesday's Matches
Real Madrid will host a struggling Salzburg, and third-placed Arsenal can guarantee its entry into the round of 16—and assist Man City—by winning at home against 24th-placed Dinamo Zagreb.
Sixth-placed Inter Milan will travel to Sparta Prague, while Bayern Munich, surprisingly in 10th place with 12 points, will visit Feyenoord, currently in 18th place with 10 points.
Brest will face Shakhtar Donetsk at Schalke’s neutral stadium in Germany, with Shakhtar needing a win to maintain their chances of advancing, as they currently have four points.
The Champions League is scheduled to take place in January primarily for financial reasons. The most powerful clubs sought a more expansive and profitable tournament, resulting in the addition of two extra midweek matches for all participants. The crowded soccer calendar left limited alternatives.
Traditionally, European club competitions observed a midwinter break until March. However, in 2001, the Champions League introduced a new format with a second group stage, which occupied February. This month remained part of the schedule when the round of 16 commenced in 2004 and continued for the next twenty years.
When UEFA implemented the eight-game league phase in 2022, January became necessary, despite some leagues in Nordic countries not starting until March and others still being on midwinter breaks.
For instance, Austrian champion Sturm Graz, which is set to face Atalanta on Tuesday, has not participated in a domestic match since December 7 and will not return to play until February 1.