Calculations by Reuters indicated on Friday that the proportion of Russia's refining capacity that is currently offline has increased to 14.5% this month, up from August, due to Ukrainian drone strikes and both planned and unplanned technical outages.

Estimates derived from industry data compiled by Reuters reveal that the offline Russian oil refining capacity surged by 34% in September. With a growing portion of this capacity inactive, Russia may face an increase in crude oil exports, as there is limited storage available for crude oil in tanks.

Market sources informed Reuters earlier this week that the loading plans for oil export terminals at Russia's Baltic ports have been slightly adjusted upward for September. In addition to seasonal maintenance, the Russian refining sector has experienced a rise in idle units as a result of Ukrainian drone attacks targeting oil and energy infrastructure.

Energy facilities have been significant targets in the ongoing conflict from both sides. Ukrainian assaults on Russian refineries and energy infrastructure have become increasingly common this year, with drones being the preferred method for these strikes. Ukraine continues to focus on Russian refineries, and some of these attacks have disrupted the supply of products from these facilities.

In recent months, Russia has encountered more extensive maintenance and repair needs at its refineries, following an escalation in Ukrainian drone attacks earlier this year. Alongside unplanned repairs to address drone damage, several refineries have also been undergoing scheduled maintenance, which has negatively impacted Russia's fuel production and exports earlier this year.

In mid-August, the Russian government announced an extension of its ban on gasoline exports from October until the end of December 2024, aiming to maintain stable domestic supply in light of seasonal demand and planned refinery repairs.