On Monday, most Asian equity markets experienced gains alongside the yen, following remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated that “the time has come” to initiate interest rate cuts, potentially as early as next month.
This announcement provided a boost to investor sentiment,
helping to alleviate the market disruptions seen in August.
However, analysts cautioned that unexpected economic data
could undermine this optimism. Powell's comments contributed to a rise of over
one percent in all three major indexes in New York.
Many Asian markets mirrored this trend, with Hong Kong,
Mumbai, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Taipei, Bangkok, and Wellington all
showing positive performance.
Conversely, Tokyo and Seoul recorded declines. In Europe,
Paris and Frankfurt opened slightly lower, while London remained closed for a
holiday.
Traders are also monitoring the situation in the Middle
East, where renewed tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have raised concerns
about potential escalation.
During a highly anticipated address at a central bankers'
symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell stated, “The time has come for
policy to adjust.”
The trajectory is evident, and the timing and speed of
interest rate reductions will be influenced by incoming data, the changing
outlook, and the risk balance, he noted.
He expressed increased confidence that inflation is
returning sustainably to the central bank's target of two percent.
Stock markets had already begun to climb in anticipation of
the Federal Reserve initiating cuts from two-decade highs next month, with
discussions primarily focused on the magnitude of the cuts and the potential
for additional reductions.
Market participants are wagering on approximately one
percentage point of cuts by year-end.
“Importantly there was a notable absence of caveats such as
‘gradual/gradualism’ as used by other Fed officials,” said National Australia
Bank’s Tapas Strickland.
“The absence of caveats is likely what excited markets.”
“Yep, the Fed is ready to start slicing those interest
rates. With the labour market cooling off and inflation finally inching closer
to that elusive two per cent target, Powell served up exactly what Wall Street
had been drooling over,” said independent analyst Stephen Innes.
“Right now, investors are in dreamland — having their cake,
eating it too. The dream scenario? A series of rate cuts that somehow dodge the
recession bullet.”
However, he warned that “the market’s next big move hinges
on whether the latest US data points to a gentle slowdown or the first tremors
of a full-blown recession. The stakes? They couldn’t be higher”.
Focus is now shifting to the upcoming release of various
economic indicators, such as US employment figures, inflation rates, and
personal income statistics.
Tokyo's stock market faced pressure from a strengthening
yen, which appreciated on Friday following comments from Powell and a signal
from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda that interest rates could be increased
again if inflation and economic conditions align with expectations.
The yen was trading at just under 144 per dollar during
early trading hours.
Traders are closely monitoring developments in the Middle
East after Israel conducted air strikes in Lebanon on Sunday, claiming to have
destroyed "thousands" of Hezbollah rocket launchers and prevented a
significant attack.
In response, Hezbollah announced it had launched its own
drone and rocket offensive.
This news led to an increase in oil prices, although the
rise was moderated by optimism that the situation would not escalate into a
widespread conflict involving other regional powers, including Iran.
Hezbollah stated that its operation "was completed and
accomplished."
Both primary oil contracts experienced gains on Monday, building on Friday's increase of over two percent, which was influenced by Powell's remarks on interest rates.
Key figures
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.7 percent at 38,110.22 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.1 per cent at 17,800.86
Shanghai – Composite: FLAT at 2,855.52 (close)
London – FTSE 100: Closed for a holiday
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 143.76 yen from 144.34 yen on Friday
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1186 from $1.1193
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3206 from $1.3209
Euro/pound: UP at 84.67 pence from 84.70 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.8 per cent at $75.46 per
barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.7 per cent at $78.73 per barrel
New York – Dow: UP 1.1 per cent at 41,175.08 (close)