It disclosed this in its ‘World Economic Outlook Update,
January 2024,’ released on Tuesday. In a table, the IMF estimated that
Nigeria’s economy grew by 2.8 per cent, a slight decline from the 2.9 per cent
it forecasted in October.
The international lender expects Nigeria’s economy to grow
by a percentage point to 3.1 per cent in 2025. Its 2024 projection is a lot
less than the 3.76 per cent the country’s government expects in 2024.
In its October update, the IMF stated that Nigeria’s slow
growth will be because of weaker oil and gas production.
At the time, it said, “Growth in Nigeria is projected to
decline from 3.3 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023 and 3.1 per cent in
2024, with negative effects of high inflation on consumption taking hold.
“The forecast for 2023 is revised downward by 0.3 percentage
point, reflecting weaker oil and gas production than expected, partially as a
result of maintenance work.”
In the third quarter of 2023, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 2.54 per
cent year-on-year in real terms according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Commenting on economic growth recently, the Central Bank of
Nigeria governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said, “The projections for the nation’s
economy paint an optimistic trajectory as the Federal Government of Nigeria
anticipates real GDP growth of 3.76 per cent in 2024, slightly surpassing the
estimated 3.75 per cent for 2023.”
In its 2024 prediction for sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF
expects the region’s economy to grow by 3.8 per cent.
It said, “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to rise
from an estimated 3.3 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.1 per cent
in 2025, as the negative effects of earlier weather shocks subside, and supply
issues gradually improve.
“The downward revision for 2024 of 0.2 percentage point from
October 2023 mainly reflects a weaker projection for South Africa on account of
increasing logistical constraints, including those in the transportation
sector, on economic activity.”
Overall global economic growth is projected at 3.1 per cent
in 2024 and 3.2 per cent in 2025. 2024’s forecast is 0.2 percentage points
higher than what the Washington-based lender projected in its October 2023
World Economic Outlook.
It stated that this expected growth is due to expected
resilience in the United States and several large emerging markets and
developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China.
It added, “The forecast for 2024–25 is, however, below the
historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 per cent, with elevated central bank policy
rates to fight inflation, a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt
weighing on economic activity, and low underlying productivity growth.
Inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, in the midst of
unwinding supply-side issues and restrictive monetary policy.”