Buying “Call of Duty” maker Activision Blizzard affords
Microsoft as much opportunity in smartphones as it does to upgrade its Xbox
division. One of the company’s most valuable assets, and a big contributor to
its $3.5 billion of 2022 mobile revenue, is “Candy Crush Saga”. Released in
2012, the addictive tile-matching video game, which has been downloaded some 5
billion times, keeps topping the charts more than a decade later, according to
research outfit Sensor Tower.
Artificial intelligence gives Microsoft another way to dial
in to the market. Its $10 billion capital injection into ChatGPT owner OpenAI
should help Nadella expand further beyond its primary business customers. The
chatbot racked up more than 100 million users within two months of its release,
making it the fastest rollout UBS analysts had seen in two decades of following
the industry.
Together, these two investments increase Microsoft’s ability
to gauge consumer behavior, using data collected from in-app purchases and
cloud gaming subscriptions. It also ratchets up the competition with other
technology titans fiercely competing to match or surpass human intelligence.
Nadella’s growing mobile clout already has emboldened him to
talk with partners about starting Microsoft’s own gaming app store. The company
previously staked some ground by testifying for “Fortnite” parent Epic Games in
its ongoing lawsuit against Apple (AAPL.O) and Google, which alleges that
monopoly power enables them to force developers to use proprietary payment
systems that take a 30% cut of purchases.
The European Commission, meanwhile, recently targeted six
tech “gatekeepers”, which could lead to third-party workarounds of the two
operating-system goliaths. With Microsoft’s branding power, its own Xbox shop
would be an attractive alternative and threaten the fees Apple and Google
collect. Gaming accounted for an estimated 20%, or $17 billion, of Apple’s
services revenue for the year ending September 2023, according to Jefferies
analysts.
Throwing its weight around in mobile will invite more
regulatory scrutiny of Microsoft, after largely avoiding the spotlight in the
25 years since it was a defendant in a landmark U.S. antitrust case. Increased
market power should also reverse another piece of history in a more beneficial
way. When asked about the newly released iPhone a dozen years ago, Microsoft’s
then-boss Steve Ballmer cackled about its prospects. Nadella may yet have the
last laugh.
Microsoft is in discussions with partners about unveiling a mobile app store for games to challenge rival ones operated by Apple and Google, according to a Bloomberg report on Nov. 30, quoting the company’s Xbox chief, Phil Spencer, at a convention in Brazil.