The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced its expectation for overall renewable fuel production to reach an estimated capacity of at least 69 billion liters (55 million tonnes) by 2028.
Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) will comprise a portion of
this growing output which is being achieved through new renewable fuel
refineries and the expansion of existing facilities. Importantly, the expected
production has a wide geographic footprint covering North America, Europe and
Asia Pacific.
“The expected production increase is extremely encouraging.
Seeing this, we need governments to act to ensure that SAF gets its fair production
share. That means, in the first instance, production incentives, to support
aviation’s energy transition. And we need continued approval for more
diversification of methods and feedstocks available for SAF production.
“With these two measures successfully in place, we can be
confident that the expected 2028 production levels will be realistically
aligned with our recently published roadmaps to net zero carbon emissions by
2050. That is important as we are counting on SAF to provide about 62 percent
of the carbon mitigation needed in 2050,” Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General
said.
Trends supporting this optimistic outlook are already
visible. In 2022, SAF production tripled to some 300 million liters (240,000
tonnes) and project announcements for potential SAF producers are rapidly
growing. IATA counts over 130 relevant renewable fuel projects announced by
more than 85 producers across 30 countries.
Each of these projects has either announced the intent or
commitment to produce SAF within their wider product slate of renewable fuels.
Typically, there is a 3 –5-year lag between a project announcement and its
commercialization date. This implies that further renewable fuel capacity out
until 2030 could still be announced over the following years.
If renewable energy production reaches 69 billion liters by
2028 as estimated, the trajectory to 100 billion liters (80 million tonnes) by
2030 would be on track. If just 30 percent of that produced SAF, the industry
could achieve 30 billion liters (24 million tonnes) of SAF production by 2030.
“Achieving the necessary SAF percentage output from these
new and expanding facilities is not a given but with governments the world-over
agreeing at ICAO to a long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) of net zero by 2050,
they now share accountability for aviation’s decarbonisation. That means
establishing a policy framework to ensure that aviation gets the needed share
of renewable energy production in SAF,” said Walsh.
Policy support & government investment
The case for diversification, within current sustainability
criteria, is clear. At present, it is expected that 85 percent of future SAF
volume over the next five years will be derived from just one of nine certified
pathways, being Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), which is dependent
on limited availability of feedstock such as waste fat, oil and grease
feedstocks (FOGs, recognized by industry as second-generation feedstock).
Three main avenues to achieve SAF diversification:
Scale already certified SAF pathways, such as Alcohol-to-Jet
(AtJ) & Fischer-Tropsch (FT)
Accelerated R&D for SAF production pathways that are
currently in development
Scale up of feedstock/feedstock conversion technology
Accelerating these avenues to commercialized levels will
require policy leadership from governments. To start, there is an impending
need for the harmonization of core SAF policies, as a means of reducing
administrative, logistical and geographic barriers to entry for new market
entrants, including producers, feedstock providers, and offtakers.
More fundamentally, the challenge is finding the capital
needed to fund the development of new technology and production facilities.
Governments must look at the broader sustainability picture with these
investments.
SAF can be produced from surplus forestry and agricultural
residues, municipal solid waste, food waste and wet wastes (third generation
feedstocks).
Producing SAF from these can create long-term return on
investment opportunities for governments, with the potential of financing the
clean-up of the environment, supporting developing economies and delivering a
future-proofed intersection of energy transition and energy security.
Passenger support
A recent IATA survey revealed significant public support for
SAF. Some 85 percent of travellers agreed that governments should provide
incentives for airlines to use SAF.
“People have experienced governments’ role in the transition
to green energy for electricity. They now expect it for SAF. The G7 leaders are
among the latest to reiterate their understanding that SAF is critical for
sustainable aviation.
“Now they must support their declarations with effective
policies. To promote SAF production, there are many tried and tested tools
including tax credits, grants, or even direct investments in emerging
technologies and solutions. The market is there. Airlines want to purchase SAF.
Anything to meaningfully incentivize SAF production will be a step forward,”
added Walsh.