One
big unknown? “We don’t know how high that mountain’s gonna grow,” said Dr.
Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University.
No
one expects a peak nearly as high as the last one, when the contagious omicron
version of the coronavirus ripped through the population.
But
experts warn that the coming wave – caused by a mutant called BA.2 that’s
thought to be about 30% more contagious – will wash across the nation. They
worry that hospitalizations, which are already ticking up in some parts of the
Northeast, will rise in a growing number of states in the coming weeks. And the
case wave will be bigger than it looks, they say, because reported numbers are
vast undercounts as more people test at home without reporting their infections
or skip testing altogether.
At the height of the previous omicron surge, reported daily
cases reached into the hundreds of thousands. As of Thursday, the seven-day
rolling average for daily new cases rose to 39,521, up from 30,724 two weeks
earlier, according to data from Johns Hopkins collected by The Associated
Press.
Dr. Eric Topol, head of Scripps Research Translational
Institute, said the numbers will likely keep growing until the surge reaches
about a quarter the height of the last “monstrous” one. BA.2 may well have the
same effect in the U.S. as it did in Israel, where it created a “bump” in the
chart measuring cases, he said.
Keeping the surge somewhat in check, experts said, is a
higher level of immunity in the U.S. from vaccination or past infection
compared with early winter.
But Ray said the U.S. could wind up looking like Europe,
where the BA.2 surge was “substantial” in some places that had comparable
levels of immunity. “We could have a substantial surge here,” he said.
Both experts said BA.2 will move through the country
gradually. The Northeast has been hit hardest so far — with more than 90% of
new infections caused by BA.2 last week compared with 86% nationally. As of
Thursday, the highest rates of new COVID cases per capita over the past 14 days
were in Vermont, Rhode Island, Alaska, New York and Massachusetts. In
Washington, D.C., which also ranks in the top 10 for rates of new cases, Howard
University announced it was moving most undergraduate classes online for the
rest of the semester because of “a significant increase in COVID-19 positivity”
in the district and on campus.
Some states, such as Rhode Island and New Hampshire, saw the
average of daily new cases rise by more than 100% in two weeks, according to
Johns Hopkins data.
Joseph Wendelken, spokesperson for the Rhode Island
Department of Health, said despite rising cases, hospitalizations remain
relatively low, and that’s the metric they are most focused on right now. About
55 COVID-19 patients are hospitalized, compared with more than 600 at one point
in the pandemic.
Officials credit high vaccination rates. State statistics
show 99% of Rhode Island adults are at least partially vaccinated and 48% have
gotten the booster dose that scientists say is key in protecting against severe
illness with omicron.
Vermont also has relatively high levels of vaccination and
fewer patients in the hospital than during the height of the first omicron
wave. But Dr. Mark Levine, the health commissioner there, said hospitalizations
and the numbers of patients in intensive care units are both up slightly,
although deaths have not risen.
Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
shows that new hospital admissions of patients with confirmed COVID-19 were up
slightly in New England and the New York region.
On the West Coast, modelers from Oregon Health & Science
University are projecting a slight increase in hospitalizations over the next
two months in that state, where cases have also risen steeply.
As the wave moves across the country, experts said states
with low rates of vaccination may face substantially more infections and severe
cases that wind up in the hospital.
Ray said government leaders must be careful to strike the
right tone when talking to people about protecting themselves and others after
COVID restrictions have largely been lifted. Philadelphia recently became the
first major U.S. city to reinstate its indoor mask mandate after a sharp
increase in infections. But Vermont’s Levine said there are no plans to bring
back any of the restrictions that were imposed earlier during the pandemic.
“It’s going to be hard to institute restrictive, draconian
measures,” Ray said. “Fortunately, we have some tools that we can use to
mitigate risk. And so I hope that leaders will emphasize the importance for
people to watch the numbers,” be aware of risks and consider taking precautions
such as wearing masks and getting vaccinated and boosted if they’re not
already.
Lynne Richmond, a 59-year-old breast cancer survivor who
lives in Silver Spring, Md., said she plans to get her second booster and keep
wearing her mask in public as cases rise in her state and nearby Washington,
D.C.
“I never really stopped wearing my mask…I’ve stayed
ultra-vigilant,” she said. “I feel like I’ve come this far; I don’t want to get
COVID.”
Vigilance is a good strategy, experts said, because the
coronavirus is constantly throwing curveballs. One of the latest: even more
contagious subvariants of BA.2 found in New York state, known as BA.2.12 and
BA.2.12.1. And scientists warn that new and potentially dangerous variants
could arise at any time.
“We shouldn’t be thinking the pandemic is over,” Topol said.
“We should still keep our guard up.” -AP